April

Israel

Iran after the Israeli strike on its consulate in Syria and the subsequent death of one of its top generals after many days and speculation decided to retaliate with a big missile barrage utilizing some of its new rocket systems and drones, most of these were intercepted or malfunctioned on the way, with one hitting an air base. The Israeli cabinet took a few days to ponder its decision and choices, with the US president Biden pressuring the Prime Minister to not retaliate and not create reason for further escalation and another retaliatory strike by Iran. These questions were answered with an attack on the region of Isfahan, not much information is known about it, not how or what kind of weapon systems were used, it's rumored that an anti-air battery was damaged and a few military installations in the region. The Iranians, wanting not to escalate the situation any further have not released any information almost denying the existence of a strike at all. The strike was limited in its scope and not very publicized by both sides.

Iran’s action used many new missile systems and also drones like the Shaheed that are of simple manufacture and limited explosive capabilities. The action was wildly telegraphed, during the days leading up to the attack many Iranian officials spoke very publicly and explicitly about the coming retaliation. The attack was big and had many resources committed to it, using new missile systems that had just been put into service. The size of this retaliation and the unprecedented nature of it signals the seriousness and the retaliatory capabilities of the Iranian state. However, the destructive potential of the attack was also thwarted by the Iranian themselves with all the theatrics involved in the lead up to it, the exclusion of Hezbollah and other proxies in the attack and the interception by the countries on the way to Israel, namely Iraq, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, USA and the United Kingdom.

The Israeli air defense takes advantage of Israel's geographic compactness and its technological edge, even though this system is very capable it is also very expensive. A single interceptor is many times more expensive than the intercepted projectile meaning there are only so many interceptors no matter how capable they are, making it susceptible to saturation like what happened in October during the Hamas attack.

Israel now finds itself negotiating for the release of the hostages in exchange for the IDF not to invade Raffah. The Israeli cause also seems to be less and less acceptable throughout the international community, protests in many American universities being a sign of that. 

Aid for Ukraine 

On Tuesday the 24th of April the American Senate finally approved the long winded aid package worth 95 Billion Dollars. The package includes aid for Israel, Taiwan and Ukraine, the latter receiving the lion's share of the 95 Billion. The foreign aid package passed also allocates $17bn to Israel, as well as $9bn for civilians suffering in conflict zones around the world, including Palestinians in Gaza.

The House of Representatives speaker, Mike Johnson, had to negotiate for many months for this package to be approved, there is a small but very powerful and significant wing of the Republican party that is very radical and very anti-Ukraine aid, shooting down many proposals and constantly threatening to remove the Speaker from his position as they did with his predecessor Kevin McCarthy. Therefore the Speaker Johnson chose to package Ukraine aid, Israel aid, Taiwan aid and the Tik Tok ban in a single bill, making it harder for the radicals to shoot the bill down, a risky strategy called LogRolling. 

The long delayed approval of the aid package also creates pressure on the Russian army to continue its advance, taking advantage of its even greater momentary advantage in material, manpower and initiative. The supply of the basic war supplies that have marked this conflict, namely artillery and drones, won't have the immediate effect of blunting Russian offensives or creating offensive capability for a future offensive, since Zelensky lacks something that can’t be provided by the West, at least if the current politics of the west stay the course, manpower. 

Ukraine has a critical manpower shortage, even before 2014 Ukraine like many of ex-soviet republics suffered from massive emigration of young adults looking for better prospects, the birth rates were low and getting lower by the year and since the annexation of Crimea and war on the Donbass this problem had only gotten worse. To compound its demographic crisis, the war in 2022 led to millions of able-bodied Ukrainians fleeing to the west. These people are unlikely to return willingly to fight against an enemy that seems to grow stronger and better adaptable to this style of war. The Zelensky government has already shifted some of its policies to try to bring these people to the army and the debate for a wide draft is ongoing.

Unlike previous offensive actions like in Bakhmut or Adivvika, the depleted state of the Ukrainian army may create a situation where a Russian breakthrough on the frontline might be possible.